I've blogged about this before. I'll probably blog about it again. Sometimes you have an excellent idea and you've gotten the data and you've done everything right, but..things just don't work out. Maybe the standard errors are too large, the sample is too small, results are not at all robust, estimate sizes are too big to be believable and the wrong sign! The ways in which "failure" can manifest itself in empirical research are endless. :)
You can look at my old blog entries for thoughts on when to give up on a paper and where to send your papers with statistically insignificant results.
But today, I wanted to point to a particularly exciting possibility: Your failure today may be the very thing that generates tremendous success in the future!
How did I come up with this crazy thought? Have a look at this article on the race for a coronavirus vaccine and the research group winning the race right now. I loved reading this article, mostly because at least it was some bit of hopeful news about this pandemic. But what stood out most to me were these lines:
The Jenner Institute’s coronavirus efforts grew out of Professor Hill’s so-far unsuccessful pursuit of a vaccine against a different scourge, malaria.
It’s so funny that in FAILING to find a vaccine for malaria, he was inadvertently SUCCEEDING (in getting closer) to finding a vaccine for a virus nobody knew about!!!
The same thing can happen to you. When any of the disasters listed above happen to you--trust me, they will happen if you stick to doing research--learn what you can from the experience. You may not get the "top 5" for that particular idea with those particular data, but what you learned in the process may just...save the world...sometime in the future.
While reading all of these articles on the quest for COVID-19 treatments, it occurred to me that so many researchers all over the world are working really, really hard right now but will ultimately not be the ones to find that vaccine or cure. I am so grateful for the doctors, nurses, cleaners, grocery store workers, delivery workers. And of course I will absolutely be grateful for the scientists who ultimately find the successful vaccines and drugs. But today, I wanted to send out a particular thank you to all of the research groups who are trying! Trying despite knowing that the chances of success are pretty low ("less than 10 percent of drugs that enter clinical trials are ever approved by the Food and Drug Administration"). A toast to you! A toast to all of the readers of this blog who keep trying to learn about the world, despite failure after failure, hoping to make the world a little (or a lot) better.
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