What We Can Learn from the Search for a Coronavirus Vaccine

I've blogged about this before. I'll probably blog about it again. Sometimes you have an excellent idea and you've gotten the data and you've done everything right, but..things just don't work out. Maybe the standard errors are too large, the sample is too small, results are not at all robust, estimate sizes are too big to be believable and the wrong sign! The ways in which "failure" can manifest itself in empirical research are endless. :)  

You can look at my old blog entries for thoughts on when to give up on a paper and where to send your papers with statistically insignificant results. 

But today, I wanted to point to a particularly exciting possibility: Your failure today may be the very thing that generates tremendous success in the future! 

How did I come up with this crazy thought? Have a look at this article on the race for a coronavirus vaccine and the research group winning the race right now. I loved reading this article, mostly because at least it was some bit of hopeful news about this pandemic. But what stood out most to me were these lines: 

The Jenner Institute’s coronavirus efforts grew out of Professor Hill’s so-far unsuccessful pursuit of a vaccine against a different scourge, malaria.

It’s so funny that in FAILING to find a vaccine for malaria, he was inadvertently SUCCEEDING (in getting closer) to finding a vaccine for a virus nobody knew about!!! 

The same thing can happen to you. When any of the disasters listed above happen to you--trust me, they will happen if you stick to doing research--learn what you can from the experience. You may not get the "top 5" for that particular idea with those particular data, but what you learned in the process may just...save the world...sometime in the future. 

While reading all of these articles on the quest for COVID-19 treatments, it occurred to me that so many researchers all over the world are working really, really hard right now but will ultimately not be the ones to find that vaccine or cure. I am so grateful for the doctors, nurses, cleaners, grocery store workers, delivery workers. And of course I will absolutely be grateful for the scientists who ultimately find the successful vaccines and drugs. But today, I wanted to send out a particular thank you to all of the research groups who are trying!  Trying despite knowing that the chances of success are pretty low ("less than 10 percent of drugs that enter clinical trials are ever approved by the Food and Drug Administration"). A toast to you! A toast to all of the readers of this blog who keep trying to learn about the world, despite failure after failure, hoping to make the world a little (or a lot) better.

Should You Stop Everything and Write that COVID-19 Paper Right Now?

There is so much the world needs to know about COVID-19 right now. The more and the sooner we learn about it, the better. If any of you out there reading this blog are considering working on a cure for the disease or a vaccine or something that may help all of us deal with the economic ramifications of social distancing (and you are capable of doing this research because you're healthy and your children are taken care of, etc.), then my answer is YES! We need you! 

But what about those of us who are not exactly in that position? This open letter for social scientists written by Damon Philips provides excellent guidance. 

My favorite parts: 

We are immersed in a century-defining moment....today, the world is not what it seems, but we still have a need to understand it, and through it to understand ourselves. You wouldn’t be a PhD student if you didn’t already feel this at some level. My point: I believe we are on the precipice of transformational research.

How is that for some inspiration!

But he also writes that we do not need to pursue new topics "in this immediate moment". Instead, he suggests that we "keep thinking about what's going on, constantly interrogating with the conceptual, methodological, and empirical tools we currently have". It is hard to come up with good ideas in general. It is probably especially hard when we're dealing with crushing anxiety from the pandemic. But, if we keep our minds open, this experience may generate quite an amazing post-dissertation topic, or post-tenure topic, or even a topic that a future PhD student will develop. 

I do hope that what we learn from this experience will allow to make the world a better place. Eventually. 

Nick Hagerty's Reflections on Grad School in Economics

Nick Hagerty has put together an excellent set of slides with advice he'd give his younger self. You can download the slides here. Yes, I have blogged about many of these things before, but I think it is worthwhile for students to read these things again and again..in fact, mid-career associate professors can also use some reminding of these things every now and then. 

For students: I really like the advice of going to talk to your advisors, even when you have nothing to show them. Maybe you can talk to them (even for 5 minutes) about why you have nothing to show them. Maybe they can help you, maybe they can't. But it's absolutely true that advisors wonder (worry?) about you when they haven't seen you in a while. 

I also really like the insight of not being able to predict the research frontier. It moves way too fast! Best to just work on something that interests you. 

I'm not sure what I think about the advice of not worrying about grades. On the one hand, I absolutely agree that, all else equal, they don't matter. Summer RAships matter a lot more, for example. But I professors have some choice over who they hire, and with limited information, they are likely to prefer students who have done better in their classes. Before hiring a student who they don't know, they will ask colleagues for insider information. Conclusion: I wouldn't completely blow off classes. 

And for the mid-career professors reading this blog, the last slide is for you! It's about the achievement/status game. For easy reference, I'll copy-paste the important bits here: 

You’ve probably been playing it for a long time. When does it end? 
- Never. 
- Jobs, publications, tenure, promotion, keynote addresses, prizes... 
- It can be hard to ever feel like you “made it” because by the time you get there, you’ve already raised the bar for yourself and are now comparing yourself against an even more elite group of people

You get to choose when you cash in! 
- Other careers will pay you more to work on things you’re not excited about 
- If you want to stay, keep playing the game at least a little bit 
- But make sure you enjoy things along the way

"The secret to good writing is good editing."

What an excellent first sentence, of this NYTimes article on how to edit your own writing. 

Simple great advice: “Never use a long word when a short one will do.” (From George Orwell's book, “Politics and the English Language”) 

What I'm probably most guilty of: "When you’re not quite sure what you want to say, it’s easy to ramble around a point, phrasing it in three or four different ways and then, instead of cutting them down to a single concise sentence, slapping all four together into a clunky, unclear paragraph."

Something I hadn't thought of but it makes sense: "The longer you can leave a draft before editing it, the better." That's probably why I catch so many mistakes in manuscripts when rereading a paper (that has already been submitted and so should be perfect) just before giving a seminar. Time has passed. 

Another good one: "If a word isn’t necessary in a sentence, cut it; if a sentence isn’t necessary in a paragraph, cut it; and if a paragraph isn’t necessary, cut it, too." Your readers will be grateful! 

There are more tips in the article. Definitely a good read. And yes, I reread this post before posting it.

Research Productivity During a Pandemic

You might have noticed that I haven't posted anything in a while. You may also have figured out that March wasn't an easy month for me--I don't think it was for anyone. Things aren't looking that great for April either. I wish I had some tips for you on how to stay productive during a crisis. I absolutely have no idea how to do that. The only good news I have read lately is that maybe a crisis is not the time to be productive. 

This article explains: "It is perfectly normal and appropriate to feel bad and lost during this initial transition. Consider it a good thing that you are not in denial, and that you are allowing yourself to work through the anxiety." 

These words brought comfort: "Know that you are not failing."

And these brought hope: "Some faculty members are feeling distracted and guilty for not being able to write enough or teach online courses properly. Others are using their time at home to write and report a burst of research productivity. All of that is noise — denial and delusion. And right now, denial only serves to delay the essential process of acceptance, which will allow us to reimagine ourselves in this new reality.

On the other side of this journey of acceptance are hope and resilience. We will know that we can do this, even if our struggles continue for years. We will be creative and responsive, and will find light in all the nooks and crannies. We will learn new recipes and make unusual friends. We will have projects we cannot imagine today, and will inspire students we have not yet met. And we will help each other. No matter what happens next, together, we will be blessed and ready to serve."

For more insights on mental health during a crisis, see these videos put together by the BU School of Public Health. 

Hang in there people! If you are able to productive, to give great online classes, to provide insights on twitter or in academic papers of how best to handle Covid-19, to submit papers to the QJE, etc., thank you (ooo, an extra thank you to my coauthors who are able to work on my papers!). We need your work more than ever. But if you can't do it just yet, I think that's OK for now. The truth is that the pandemic will end. Things will get back to normal. But other crises will come, and the more tools we develop to best navigate them, to get through them, the more productive we will be in the long run. 

Take care of yourselves, and if you need help, do reach out. 

For UConn student students needing help, please refer to UConn’s Mental Health Services at counseling.uconn.edu. Students can call 860-486-4705 to make an appointment for a tele-mental health visit with a provider.